NFL Week 7 Spread Locks
The Madden Curse has returned in a big way.
The National Football League is in crisis. On Thursday night, the most electric player that has ever graced our television screens went down. On a fourth and one inside the 10-yard line, Patrick Mahomes snuck to get the first down.
But after the whistle, horror struck.
Had the Yankees and Astros not been playing at the same time, this could have had a Derrick Rose first ACL tear feel. To watch a guy we have seen more of a video game player be mortal was surreal to watch.
At the time it looked like a season ending catastrophe.
Thankfully, reports from Mahomes’ MRI results were best case scenario and he will not miss much time. That is what reports say. Reality could have different plans. The Chiefs cannot afford to be complacent. They must have a backup plan should this happen again.
The timing of this injury could not have come at a better time for Kansas City. Matt Moore performed admirably in relief Thursday (I whiffed on that Thursday game like Gary Sanchez), but let’s be honest, if Moore has to be a starter for an extended period of time the Chiefs are screwed. With the trade deadline not until October 29th the Chiefs can add a more viable backup.
Here are three best guys the Chiefs can add from least intriguing to jaw dropping. And before you ask, Colin Kaepernick is not listed. He is never coming back, let it go.
Josh Rosen has gotten the shit end of the stick back to back years. It’s hard to fathom that Rosen played for the worst team in the league last year, and was then traded to a team that decided to go Process Sixers. Barring a trade, he will once again be on the team that will get the first overall pick.
Andy Reid can be Rosen’s salvation. Rosen is not half the player Mahomes in, maybe not even a quarter. But he is not a bad quarterback. He can make throws, and if surrounded by above average players, might actually win some games.
Mediocre Marcus has been benched for Ryan Tannehill. That has to be a haymaker hit to Mariota’s ego, as well as the unofficial end to his Titans career. Mariota has been insanely average for most of his career, yet it would not be fair to mention he has also had a horrible offensive line and a string of the worst receivers corps consistently. The best receiver Mariota threw too was Rishard Matthews. Rishard Matthews!
Prior to being sent to hell in Nashville, Mariota was a machine at Oregon in a fast-paced offense built on lightning fast athletes.
If there was an NFL equivalent to those Oregon teams it is the Chiefs. This has serious career altering vibes if it were to happen.
Let’s get fucking crazy. Cam Newton has been cucked by Kyle Allen of all people for the starting job in Carolina. How much did injuries play a factor in Newton’s struggles in the first two weeks we do not know. What we do know, is when healthy is a monster.
The likelihood of the Panthers cutting bait on the best quarterback they ever had is extremely low, but crazier shit has happened. You put a healthy Newton in Reid’s offense and the Chiefs are producing as close a rate as they would with Mahomes.
This Chiefs cast ironically mirrors the offense Newton had during his MVP season with a dynamic tight end, veteran running backs, and home run deep threats. Should this come to fruition Reid would have a redux of the Mike Vick-Donovan McNabb pairing he had in Philly and could create hell if both QBs are healthy.
Imagine, you stop the Chiefs inches before the goal line to force fourth down. Mahomes comes out, Cam trots in. Even Bill Belechick might break a sweat.
Until the Chiefs make a move we have Matt Moore, which means the NFL is less fun. How will the league look without its marquee guy? Week 7’s Sunday slate is a bleak look at what we’d be left with.
Home teams are in CAPS.
Rams (-3) over FALCONS
I can’t wait for the Falcons to fuck me over once again. They have outed themselves as a full blown bad team. They lost to the Cardinals last week, after giving up 53 points to the Texans, and after getting beat by the Titans at home the week before that. What reason have they given us to believe they can cover anything?
Then you have the Rams, who have lost three games in a row, and looked pathetic without Todd Gurley. Jared Goff’s massive extension can already be considered lost money, and the Rams’ identity has become increasingly clear, play defense and run the football.
Gurley is back, and freshly traded Jalen Ramsey will be in action. That’s bad news for Julio Jones and worst news for Matt Ryan who was already looking at a full day of Aaron Donald spinbustering him into the turf. Garbage points taken into account I think the Rams finally get back on track.
Prediction: Rams 33, Falcons 27
Vikings (-2) over LIONS
The Lions were absolutely hosed on Monday night by the refs. Why they were on the receiving end of a garbage call is anyone’s guess. There is no time to sulk, they have to face another division opponent, who is playing much better than the Packers were.
Things have turned around for the better in Minnesota. Kirk Cousins has found his balls which has brought everything together. We know Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are filthy. All this team needed was a guy to get the ball to them. Up until Week 4 Cousins wasn’t that guy. He is now.
It will not be the cakewalk the Eagles and Giants were, but the Lions are slightly outmatched in the talent department. In a game of inches every inch of talent counts, including the coaching, which favors the Vikes.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Lions 23
Raiders (+4.5) over PACKERS
Had the refs not bailed them out, Green Bay is entering this week 4–2 with no healthy receivers. Instead, they are 5–1 with no healthy receivers. Aaron Rodgers will be without Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, and possibly Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Rodgers still has Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones to rely on. Jimmy Graham still has a pulse and that Lazard guy is someone Rodgers liked enough to tell Matt LeFleur to put in. Not exactly the group of guys that instills confidence.
Oakland is feisty, even without Tyrell Williams in the lineup. They surprisingly beat the Bears up in London and are fresh off a bye week. If you’re going to attack the Packers it’s on the ground, which plays into Josh Jacobs’ hands. Can the Raiders pull off the complete upset, I’m not sure. I am sure that if it is a blowout the Raiders will be the team that is up.
Prediction: Raiders 24, Packers 27
Poo Poo Platter
Warning: Don’t spend much time watching the following five games.
Five games this week in an especially heavy plate of trash games, that could have been extended to six or seven games if I wanted to.
Jaguars (-4.5) over BENGALS
Without the dark cloud of Jalen Ramsey hanging over them, and two first round picks richer, the Jaguars can move on. They moved on past Ramsey on the field a couple weeks already so that shouldn’t change much. The Jags aren’t a bad team, and certainly not a good team.
The Bengals are a flat out bad team, and an appalling home team. They are 0–2 against the spread at home. Both losses came against surprisingly competent teams in hindsight (especially the 49ers), so this is not a Dolphins or Redskins situation.
Still, the Bengals have not been able to run the football with any success and Andy Dalton doesn’t have A.J. Green for another week to throw to. Better days could be ahead for the Bengals, just not this week.
Prediction: Jaguars 20, Bengals 13
BILLS (-17) over Dolphins
Such a big spread after last week certainly scares me. Trusting the Bills with this many points is scary now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is back in the starting lineup. Last week there was a burst of Fitz Magic for the backdoor cover. That was against the loser ass Redskins.
As a Jets fan I remember the last time Fitz was in Buffalo all too well. I hope the well rested Bills beat the ever living shit out of Fitz and the Dolphins, which I think happens as the Dolphins struggle to score points until the game is over.
Prediction: Dolphins 10, Bills 31
49ers (-10) over REDSKINS
I have figured out how the 49ers have returned to form. They have turned to the classic football blueprint of running the football and playing defense. Tevin Coleman and Katt Breida are a sneaky good, and fast, platoon. Their defense, led by a stud defensive line, is really good.
They have taken advantage of favorable matchups early in the season, and showed up when they had to last season. Beating up the Rams in LA was the sign that they should be treated with some respect. Certainly enough respect to beat the Redskins.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Redskins 7
Chargers (+2.5) over TITANS
Last week was the Toilet Super Bowl, and this is a worthy encore of trashness. The Chargers absolutely stink. Philip Rivers might have finally joined his draft classmates Ben Roethlishberger and Eli Manning in the washed zone. Once again the Chargers failed to cover the spread as they got their ass kicked at home by third string quarterback Devlin Hodges and the Steelers in what felt like a home game for the Steelers in LA.
At 1–5 they can never be fully trusted, the Titans are just that meh. Ryan Tannehill gets the start as the team thinks their solution to poor offensive line play and roster structuring can be cured by a guy who was not good enough to stay in Miami.
I hate everything about this game and hate both these teams.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Titans 16
BEARS (-3.5) over Saints
A truly shocking edition to the platter that looked like a game of the week a few months ago. No Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Jared Cook and possible return of Mitch Trubisky makes this game unwatchable. The Saints engaged in a rock fight last week in Jacksonville, and this game will be no different.
Khalil Mack and the Bears defense are different animals at Soldier Field and the Saints have escaped defeat far too many times to not slip up once.
Prediction: Saints 13, Bears 17
Texans (+1) over COLTS
Perhaps the game of the day, could be a much simpler pick than it appears. The Texans are scorching hot, thanks to Deshaun Watson. They surprised the Chiefs in Arrowhead last week after tossing up 50-plus on the Falcons the week prior. As impressive as those wins were, the Colts will be their best test thus far.
Before heading to their bye week they gave the Texans, and the rest of the league, the blueprint to take down the Chiefs. Giving Marlon Mack the ball 30 times a game and giving T.Y. Hilton the ball 5 to 10 times seems to be their path to success. They are definitely good enough to win this game, but the way Watson is vibing, a slightly banged up Colts secondary (no Malik Hooker and Kenny Moore II) is enough to roll with the hot hand.
Prediction: Texans 30, Colts 27
GIANTS (-3) over Cardinals
Saquon Barkley returns a week after Sam Darnold, and all is right in New York football for now. Barkley is not only the best running back in the league, but could be the heir to Adrian Peterson as the genetic freak who might be a saiyan. The first glimpse of Daniel Jones-Saqon RPO has the potential to be highly entertaining.
Entertaining has been the one thing the Cardinals have been able to accomplish. They finally added some wins to complement their entertaining games. In a perfect world, this game, which features two of the worst defenses in the league, blows past their 51.5 over and steals the show as the Red Zone game of the week.
Saquon and home-field advantage is where the Giants gain the edge.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Giants 34
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Ravens
Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign strengthens with each week. He has yet to throw an interception this season, and has managed to find a way to win somehow, someway. Losing Will Dissly for the season sucks, but Russ has never been dependent on one guy to produce points.
Lamar Jackson started hot out the gates, cooled off, then caught fire again last week against the hapless Bengals. Jackson put up an Atlanta Mike Vick stat line of 236 passing yards and 152 rushing yards, to go with one rushing touchdown. He will need a repeat performance in Seattle without Hollywood Brown once again, and Wilson playing as well as he is.
In terms of watchability this game has it all. It has the present vs. the future in Russ vs. Lamar. It has Earl Thomas revenge game potential, and Marcus Peters making his debut. The chances that Russ finally throws a pick are high, and hopefully it’s by Thomas, however, that doesn’t change the fact the Ravens have not beaten good teams yet.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Seahawks 31
COWBOYS (-2.5) over Eagles
The battle for the NFC East part one will not be nearly as exciting as the eventual playoff game these two will have in Philly Week 16. Hopefully by then the Eagles will be healthy. For now the Cowboys are the healthier team and are back in Jerry World.
Coming off three straight losses it is easy to feel low on the Cowboys. But lost in their last two losses was Dak Prescott’s ability to take advantage of bad secondaries. The Eagles’ secondary fit that bill.
With the returns of Tyron Smith, Amari Cooper and La’el Collins, Prescott will be protected, something the Jets exploited last week, on every level. The Eagles may end up winning the war, but a healthier Cowboys team should win this battle.
Prediction: 24, Eagles 20
JETS (+10) over Patriots
Am I high off Sam Darnold highlights? Maybe. But I don’t care. The Patriots will win this football game, I have not reached that level of delusion, I’m not sure about them covering a double digit spread again. They somehow covered a massive 16.5-point spread at home against the Giants by the skin of their teeth.
The Jets with Darnold and C.J. Mosley are much better than the Giants. If Chris Herndon is also able to go, this line may shift below double digits. If Greg Williams’ defense can get to Tom Brady the way they got to Dak Prescott last week, they may actually have a shot.
Darnold was fantastic last week, but the Patriots defense is a different beast. Points will be hard to come by, but I think the Jets save face after a truly embarrassing showing in Foxborough.